菲律賓陸軍前情報主管分析“點穴戰”

来源：亚洲时报在线
撰文 Victor N Corpus

（作者維克多•科爾普斯（Victor N Corpus）是已退役的菲律賓武裝部隊陸軍准將，曾任菲軍方情報局的局長，並獲得過哈佛大學甘迺迪政府學院的公共管理碩士學位。）

“点穴战　第一部分：美国的“命门”

在从事战争理论研究的常梦熊（音译，Chang Mengxiong）看来，中国的战争策略无异于“一个深谙体穴道的中国拳师，不费吹灰之力就能把一个彪形大汉打翻在地”。 根据传统中医理论，人体有多个穴位；击打一个穴位，往往都会对周身产生影响。因此，当台湾问题引发中美军事对抗时，华盛顿将需要提前保护好所有“穴位”，以免遭到北京的攻击。一旦关键“穴位”被中国击中，美国将可能顷刻之间全身武功被废。

1、电磁脉冲（EMP）袭击

对美国而言，中国与俄罗斯是有能力发动此类袭击的两个潜在对手。洲际弹道导弹、潜艇发射的弹道导弹、远端巡航导弹和配置了有核或无核弹头的电磁脉冲轨道卫星，均可发动电磁脉冲袭击。在美国的中心地带，譬如内布拉加斯州的奥马哈（Omaha）上空400公里，一万亿吨或者更大规模的电磁脉冲攻击，就能令美国所有的电子设备瞬间失灵。

在电磁脉冲攻击中，所有使用微晶片的电子设备都难逃劫数，导致大部分商业活动和企业生产陷入瘫痪，国民经济也将因此而完全停滞。由于处于袭击范围之内的人造卫星难于幸免，军方的指挥、控制、通信、电脑、情报、监视、侦察系统都会被悉数摧毁。失去信号之后，地面上的洲际导弹无法发射，反导防御体系也是面临同一命运。简而言之，美国将会乱成一片，而美国社会将可能重新回到黑暗世纪（Dark Ages）。

当然，美国或许想到先发制人。但即便美国先下手为强，中俄两国仍有能力利用潜艇发射杀伤力更强大的弹道导弹，进行报复。中国的战略常以“积极防御”为中心；如果预见到与美国的军事对抗迫在眉睫，北京肯定会积极备战，避免遭遇袭击。俗话说，“先发制人，制人；后发制人，制于人”；中国自然不会放弃主动权。

中国屡屡强调，将不会首先使用核武器。但古人也说过，“兵不厌诈”。处在国家生死存亡的关键时刻，中国当然不会让一句承诺束缚自己的手脚，而是抓住一切可乘之机。无怪乎，有人说：“在恋爱和战争中，毫无公平可言。”

2、网路袭击

众所周知，美国是世界上资讯技术产业最发达的国家：几乎所有的产业、制造业、金融活动、通信、政府服务和国防设施都依赖电脑和电脑网路来完成。

这种依赖，是一把双刃剑。一方面，美国的经济和国防体系，远远领先于世界其他国家；另一方面，电脑及其网路，也就成为了美国的一个致命弱点。在几十台笔记本电脑键盘上敲几下，都可能令美国这个世界霸主遭受沉重打击。

在中国，新时代的“人民战争”被赋予了新的含意。它不仅包括资讯技术部队（中国军队人数为200多万），还包括了13亿人口中的普通百姓。若再把俄罗斯、伊朗、北韩、委内瑞拉、古巴、叙利亚等反美国家的骇客和资讯技术士兵统计进来，美国遭到网路袭击的后果将非常可怕。

因此，若中美爆发冲突，大量电脑可被用来摧毁支撑美国人日常生活的体系，包括美国的军事设施、银行体系、股市、国防工业、通信、电力、水网、油气管道等。

从整体上讲，美国并未准备好应对这类袭击；同样，电磁脉冲袭击也让它束手无策。在这样的袭击面前，美国似乎只能缴械投降。

3、截断美国的原油供应

目前，进口原油满足了美国需求的75%；而波斯湾的石油，占其进口原油的23.5%。伊朗只需在霍尔木兹海峡（波斯湾石油运往世界各地的唯一海上通道）布下上浮式水雷，便可切断美国的原油供应。值得一提的是，伊朗的水雷储存量世界第四，仅次于中国、俄罗斯和美国。

除了布雷外，伊朗还可用Yakhont、Moskit、Granit和Brahmo等超音速巡航导弹封锁该海峡；这些武器都已部署在阿布穆萨岛和伊朗崎岖的海岸线上。这一招，也足以令美国人投降。除美国外，日本（90%的原油靠进口）和欧洲（60%的原油来自波斯湾）也将受到严重影响。

当美国和其盟友（主要是日本和英国）与中国及其盟友（主要是俄罗斯和伊朗）发生对抗时，伊朗决定性的战略作用将进一步得以突现。德黑兰拥有截断整个波斯湾原油出口的能力，这正是中俄两国着力发展与其的经济、文化、政治、外交和军事关系的主要原因；这也正是伊朗敢在核扩散问题上屡屡叫板美国的主要原因。它与伊拉克和北韩一同被华盛顿称为“邪恶轴心”。德黑兰清楚，自己有掐住美国“喉咙”的力量。若没有波斯湾的石油，美国和其盟友的战争机器都无用武之地。

无论是来自伊朗、中国或俄罗斯的打击，还是三国在霍尔木兹海峡采取联合行动，都能让美国瞬间瘫痪。此外，中俄两国的潜艇还可通过拦截从中东、非洲和拉美开往美国或日本的油轮，从而实现切断它们生命线的目的。另一方面，美国海军将不会对中国的原油供应构成很大威胁，因为中国的输油管道已铺设至哈萨克斯坦，并很快就可接通俄罗斯和伊朗。

若伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡，国际油价届时肯定暴涨。油价持续高企，无疑又将在美国引起通涨，造成美元大幅贬值，还可能引发美元抛售狂潮。美元大幅贬值，对美国经济的冲击不言而喻。

4、对美元的袭击

世界通行的美元，是美国支撑其全球霸主和经济主导地位的重要支柱之一。由于只能用美元购买原油和其他商品，不少国家的央行均储备了大量美元。

美元能让美国变成世界经济强国，同样能让它变得一贫如洗。例如，抛售美元，也能在顷刻间摧毁美国的经济大厦。更让白宫担心的是，中国、俄罗斯和伊朗拥有掀起美元抛售狂潮的能力。

作为世界上外汇储备最多的国家，截至到6月30日中国持有9,410亿的美元资产，并有望在年末增至创世界历史记录的1万亿美元。一旦中国决定抛出相当大比例的美元资产，转换成欧元、日元或黄金，必然会引起不少国家跟风，因为谁也不愿留着一袋子不断贬值的美元。当国民经济处于生死攸关之时，从众心理将变得更难控制。

美国多年来的傲慢无礼，单边主义和穷兵黩武为特点的外交政策，令其在中东、欧亚、东南亚、非洲和拉美处处树敌。很多国家早已对美国心生不满，只是隐而不发。美元抛售狂潮一旦出现，这些国家当然会纷纷抛售美元，笑看美国走向崩溃。

由于美国经常项目赤字（current account deficit）持续增加，美元将面临着更大的贬值风险。2005年第四季度，美国的经常项目赤字额增至9千亿美元，首次占该国GDP的7%。经常项目赤字呈上升趋势，反映了美国进出口贸易的失衡程度；这也说明，美国经济正丧失其竞争力，直接结果就是就业率和收入水准下降。

由于对外贸易和经常性项目的逆差不断增长，美国平均每年必须向日本和中国等债权国借入9000亿美元（即平均每天25亿美元）才能维持其国际收支平衡。2005年美国单是偿还国债的利息就花费了3520亿美元，到今年的8月24日，美国国债已经膨胀至85000亿美元。

国际货币基金组织曾警告称：“在未来几年，美国的外债将增长至其GDP总量的40%，这一比重对于一个工业大国来说是前所未有的。”

美国政府财政预算的赤字同样令人担忧。《今日美国》专栏记者Dennis Cauchon在文中这样写道：

“联邦政府有两套帐本。在向大众公开的帐本中，盈亏结算线是较为乐观的：2005年度财政赤字为3180亿美元。而另一套政府避而不谈的帐本才是按照标准会计守则得出的审计结果，它所反映的财政情况堪忧：2005年度的财政赤字为7600亿美元。

“若按照美国财务会计准则委员会（FASB）正在拟定的新准则，把社会保险和医疗保障算进来，政府的赤字更可能达到3.5万亿美元。虽然美国国会制定了自己的会计准则，但却不能为公司企业所用，因为这些准则忽略了公务员和军人不断膨胀的退休福利金。据审计报告显示，去年的财政赤字相当于每个美国家庭 6700美元，但政府公开的数字只有2800美元……

“据《今日美国》分析，财政部出台的审计报告表明，联邦政府的实际财政状况比官方预算报告所反映的更不尽人意。审计资料显示，从1997年以来美国政府的财政赤字已累积到2.9万亿美元，但官方资料只有7290亿美元。这两个数字的差距，相当于联邦政府一整年的支出。”

庞大的经常性帐目和贸易逆差、不断累积的外债和继续膨胀的财政赤字，都是美国经济濒临危机的徵兆，更将美元汇价推向崩溃的边缘。这种经济状况无法长期的维持下去，而美元的稳定性正面临极大的危险。只要稍有刺激，美元就可能一跌再跌。而这种刺激因素可能来自于中国、俄罗斯或伊朗等长期受到美国欺压的国家。

我们已经见识过中国的能耐。那么俄罗斯或伊朗如何逼使美元贬值呢？2003年9月2日，俄罗斯和沙特签订了石油和天然气合作协议，同意“联合控制海外市场原材料的价格走向”。假如这两个油气大国与伊朗联手，它们将能够控制石油产量及销售从而抬高油价。如果油价居高不下，将会促使美国的通胀率上升，同时对已经疲软的美元施加更大压力，最终导致美元急速贬值。

俄罗斯如今是全球最大的能源输出国，平均每天输出能源量相当1330万桶石油，已经超过了沙特的1000万桶。同时，俄罗斯也是已探知天然气储量最多的国家。伊朗的天然气储量排名第二，仅次于俄罗斯，而且也是主要的产油国之一。假设俄罗斯和伊朗在能源贸易时不使用贬值的美元进行结算，其他的产油国也会跟风。这些国家包括委内瑞拉、印尼、挪威、苏丹、尼日利亚以及中亚诸国。

如果是这样的话，沙特和中东地区的其他石油输出国可能也会“随波逐流”，因为当石油美元逐渐转换成石油欧元的时候，它们当然不会抱着迅速贬值的美元不放。在大众心理的驱使下，最终美元将会变得毫无价值。鉴于美国单边主义政策在全世界特别是中东地区煽起了反美情绪，因此中东国家集体抛售美元、支持欧元的可能性是存在的。

美元在1971年8月与黄金脱勾以后，其主要的支撑力来自于它被广泛应用为石油贸易的结算货币地位。一旦国际石油贸易放弃美元而选择欧元或其他货币，那么美元将会急速下跌，同时各国央行也会大量买持其他的货币。石油美元向石油欧元的转变，将对美元产生破坏性的影响，甚至导致美元汇价彻底崩盘，从而引起美国经济的崩溃。这不禁会让人们想起在2001年“9•11”事件中倒塌的世贸双子塔，但美国经济崩塌的后果，将会比世贸倒塌严重上千倍。

对美元的攻击将最大限度地抑制美国所能采取的还击措施。而对美元的攻击可能来自于中国、俄罗斯和伊朗，或者是它们的联合体，如果它们决定不再对美国逆来顺受的话。

5、外交孤立

1991年苏联解体后，美国成为了世界上唯一的超级大国。这是一个让美国建立全球领导地位的大好时机。美国不仅拥有最强大的经济、科技和军事实力，而且控制着众多国际金融机构，因此完全可以建立长达一个世纪的霸权。

但是在这段关键时刻，美国必须在动用软实力和硬实力之间做出一个抉择。如果动用软实力，美国应该成为扶贫、医疗、打击毒品、环保等领域的领军人物。

若动用软实力，美国还可以帮助贫穷国家减少债务，为偏远山区的人口提供远端教育和品质教育，并且帮助亚、非、拉等地的贫穷国家兴建公路、铁路、港口、机场、医院、学校和电信等基础设施。

然而，事实并非如此。如果说美国曾经运用了软实力的话，那也是极小的一部分。事实上，在外交上将软实力运用自如的不是美国，而是冉冉升起的中国。在过去的 10年里，中国在非洲、拉美、中亚、东南亚、南亚和中东等地区充分发挥了它的软实力，并且赢得了多数国家的好感，而且实际上已经建立了一个由它默默领导的国际联合阵线。

相反，美国动用的主要是硬实力，在外交上实行单边主义和军事主义，无视联合国以及盟友的意见，单方面破坏了前任政府所签署的一些国际条约，如《反弹道导弹条约》等，并采取推动敌对国家政权交迭和“先发制人”的策略。它打着人道主义的旗号，率领北约组织的军队对塞尔维亚进行了78天的轰炸。它还不顾法、德等欧洲盟友的反对，在没有联合国授权的情况下，先后入侵阿富汗和伊拉克。

美国挑起的伊拉克战争最初是一场胜利，但最后却变成了战略上的失败。因为伊拉克战争，美国不仅失去了欧洲的一些主要盟友，受到孤立，而且引起了许多国家的鄙夷和憎恨。朋友和盟友所剩无几的美国就像是一个“没穿衣服的国王”。

由此推断，若美中两国爆发重大冲突，孤立无援的美国将很难战胜由中国和俄罗斯所引领的国际联合阵线。

这又牵涉到分析美国的另一个关键因素──联盟，有关的详细内容将在本文的第二部分加以阐述。


“点穴战　第二部分：中俄伊战略三角成美国软肋

从中国的战争指导思想看，若美中交手，美国那些关键却又相对薄弱的部位将受到猛烈攻击。这样的袭击仅仅一次就足以令整个国家陷入瘫痪。电网、电脑网路、海外原油供应路线和美元，可能成为中国袭击的目标（第一篇已进行了相应的探讨），而这篇则主要讨论其他的袭击目标。

强大的中俄伊战略三角

目前，中俄两国在政治、外交和军事上保持着非常亲密的关系；但1991年以前，没有人能预见到两国会走得这么近。从60年代中苏关系破裂到1991年苏联解体的30年间，北京和莫斯科均视对方为强劲对手，两国边境甚至多次传出冲突的消息。

然而，事易时移。为了巩固各自“后院”免受美国“侵扰”，中俄两国最终走到了一起。事实上，中俄两国的“姻缘”，还多亏了美国一系列失误的战略措施。

苏联解体的1991年，本来是美国施加软力量，把俄罗斯拉入西方阵营的最佳时机。俄国当时经济彻底崩溃，一桶原油的价格仅为9美元。可惜的是，美国和欧洲的经济援助承诺口惠而实不至，与西方交往而受益的只有那些石油寡头。

随后，北约和欧盟开始东扩，昔日华沙条约的成员国均被它们拉拢。俄罗斯的盟友塞尔维亚，遭到了长达78天的空袭；在美国和西方资助的非政府组织支援下，格鲁吉亚、乌克兰和吉尔吉斯等前苏联加盟共和国（又被视为俄罗斯的后院）先后发生了“颜色革命”。俄罗斯发现，自身已处在了美国及其盟友的战略包围中。此外，美国入侵阿富汗和发动伊拉克战争，并在乌兹别克和吉尔吉斯建立军事基地，也让俄罗斯感到威胁。

正是美国这些咄咄逼人的地缘政治举动，把俄罗斯推向了中国张开已久的怀抱。对1989年六四事件后便遭到欧美武器禁运制裁的中国来讲，俄罗斯的能源、现代化武器和军事技术让它垂涎三尺。此外，为对付美国的威胁，中国也需要俄罗斯这个值得信赖、军力强大的盟友。

中国一直认为美国在遏制她的发展。这方面的“证据”有：1999年美军轰炸中国驻贝尔格莱德大使馆，2001年中美撞机事件，2002年美国宣布退出《反弹道导弹条约》，美日两国持续加强军事合作，把台湾纳入美军的战区导弹防御（TMD）系统，在吉尔吉斯设立军事基地（离中国核子试验场罗布泊仅250英里）。

此外，美国总统布什还宣称，一旦大陆对台动武，将协防台湾；1995-1996年，克林顿政府派驻两艘航母游弋在台海附近；2004年8月的军事演习中，美军在西太平洋调动了7艘航母，向中国炫耀实力。美国的这些举动，都迫使中国投向了昔日的对手俄罗斯。

中俄两国都需要一个安全稳定的后方，且彼此都愿为对方提供这种保障；两国还实现了优势互补。别忘了，中俄还都是核大国。俄罗斯丰富的能源资源，将保证中国在重大冲突中不会遭遇“缺油”的现象；而这是美国和其盟国所不具备的优势。

同时，俄罗斯向中国提供大量先进的武器和军事技术，加速了后者的国防现代化进程。因而，美国和欧洲对华的武器禁运并未收到预期效果。另一方面，俄罗斯也期待同中国大力发展贸易，渴望中国的援助和投资，还有中国产品。

中俄两国结盟，是当今影响巨大的地缘政治事件。不过，很少有人注意到两国从相互憎恨到建立牢固的地缘政治、经济、外交和军事关系的转变过程。两国联合起来的力量，远远超过了当年的华沙条约组织。若把伊朗也加进来，这个三角同盟足以对美国这个世界霸主构成可怕的挑战。伊朗不仅是中东人口最多的国家，也是工业化程度最高的国家。它是世界上最大的产油国之一，且天然气资源储量居世界第二，仅次于俄罗斯。伊朗还是世界上的多山之国。如此地形下，开展非对称战争和游击战争非常有利。

伊朗南北分别毗邻波斯湾和里海，而它们所蕴藏的油气资源总量均排世界前列。更重要的是，它还控制着波斯湾的出口──霍尔木兹海峡。现代化的上浮火箭推动沉底水雷和超音速巡航导弹，已被伊朗部署在多山的海岸线上，由“看不见的”游击队控制。因此，伊朗可随时切断波斯湾的原油出口；而美国进口原油的23%来自这一地区。波斯湾还为日本和欧洲分别提供了90%和60%的原油。一旦发生重大冲突，伊朗可迅速令美国和其盟国的战争机器瘫痪。

想像一下，美国的先进武器因缺油而无法使用将是什么样的场景；想像一下，若断了这23%的原油供应，美国经济又将变成什么样。若中俄两国潜艇袭击驶往美国的油轮，这个世界霸主短缺的石油可能不止23%，而是更多。因此可以看出，中国、俄罗斯和伊朗组成的铁三角，轻易就可以击垮美国。

美国的地缘政治弱势

若发生重大冲突，美国的另一命门就是它的地理位置。不论哪里发生常规冲突，美国都需要长途跋涉，运送兵力过去。这就意味着，美国必须穿过太平洋、印度洋和（或者）大西洋，为战场提供后勤供应和兵力补充。

这样一来，美国的海上运输线（SLOC）将长达几千英里，很容易受到中俄两国潜艇的夹击。它们还会发射快速上浮火箭水雷、火箭推进的超空泡鱼雷和超音速巡航导弹。目前，连航母群也未能想出周详的应对之策；而补给运输船和油轮，则更容易受到攻击。

由于俄制现代级（Sovremenny）驱逐舰和其他中俄战舰均装备了先进的防空系统，美国海上交通线之上的空中走廊也面临巨大威胁。简而言之，地理位置为美国攻击欧亚敌人的军事行动设置了诸多障碍。

当然，美国在世界各地都有着军事基地和补给中心，特别是在那些有着重大战略意义的地区，如中国、俄罗斯和伊朗周边。但当战争打响时，这些基地绝对是对方中短程弹道导弹和远端对陆攻击巡航导弹（LACM）袭击的首选目标，这些导弹可以携带电磁脉冲、反雷达、热压或常规弹头。

遭到密集的导弹轰炸后，这些美军基地将在中俄在欧亚大陆的装甲部队随后发动的闪电袭击中彻底消失。例如，中国有四支24小时待命的装甲部队，随时可穿过新疆的伊犁走廊。与中国边境相隔不远的美军驻吉尔吉斯基地，很难有还手之力。

另一方面，中国、俄罗斯和伊朗的行动主要会在欧亚本土。当需要解除这一大陆面对的威胁而进行军事和后勤调动时，它们多会用相对安全的交通和后勤路线，如内陆的高速公路、铁路和空中航线。

既然无法克服地理位置造成的障碍，美国只能与日本和英国这两个铁杆盟国硬着头皮，迎着这些障碍而上。美国自然可以向中俄两国发射洲际导弹，经海上发射弹道导弹，或者让战略轰炸机率先进行核打击，以绕过上述些障碍；但中俄两国同样有能力向美国和其盟友进行“以牙还牙”式的报复。

在美国新保守主义阵营的一些重量级人物认为，美国核战必胜，且“确保相互毁灭”（MAD）之类的事根本不存在。这种愚蠢的想法，无疑将为美国，甚至整个地球敲响丧钟。


“点穴战”　第三部分：美国难敌“非对称袭击”

在“非对称袭击”（assymetric attack）面前，美国毫无招架之力。此类袭击最经典的例子，就是911事件了。2001年9月11日，19名恐怖分子用裁纸刀便劫持了几架飞机，最后成功撞毁了纽约世界贸易中心，并造成了3,000多人死亡。注意一下双方毫无对称性可言的死亡比例（19人：3,000人），这可是有史以来最触目惊心的死亡比例。

中国、俄罗斯和伊朗拥有不少适用于非对称作战的武器，似乎完全是为了在常规战中打垮美国这样的世界霸主而设计的。超音速巡航导弹能击沉美军的航母；携带分导式弹头的中短程弹道导弹、EM52型快速上浮火箭水雷和“风暴”（Shkval）超空泡鱼雷也具有相同的威力。至今，美国海军仍未想出应对之策。

在伊拉克，反抗势力采取的就是非对称作战策略。他们利用简陋的爆破装置、汽车炸弹、公路炸弹，对付装备世界第一的美军。尽管美军在武器方面占有明显优势，但要打击“隐性”对手，这种优势很难发挥作用。
试问谁能战胜看不见的敌人呢？这大概也是最近美军屠杀伊拉克无辜平民事件越来越多的原因。但把先进武器瞄准平民百姓，并不会帮美国赢得这场战争。恰恰相反，它只会加剧平民对美军的愤恨，令美军遭到更多的自杀式袭击。

与非对称作战相关的，就是非同步作战（asynchronous warfare），即“君子报仇，十年不晚”。当看准对手毫无防备时，弱势一方就会择机出手。

比如说，若美国使用有“地堡克星”之称的核武器摧毁伊朗的地下核设施，德黑兰只能等待时机，在其研制出核武器后才会进行报复。届时，伊朗可选择利用基洛级（Kilo）潜艇向纽约或华盛顿发射一枚携带核弹头的“白蛉”（Moskit）超音速巡航导弹，以报当年的一箭之仇；或者利用渗入美国的核科学家制造出一枚“肮脏弹”，然后投向美国国会，这时毫不知情的美国总统可能正向议员们发表一年一度的国情咨文演说。

非对称战争和非同步战争拥有无限的可能性，攻击的一方可以采用各种各样的武器。如果一把普通的开箱刀可以劫持飞机并发动“9•11”袭击，那么请试想一下：如果一架私人飞机向人口密集的城市投放生化武器，如果训练有素的骇客集体攻击美国的银行系统和其他重要服务设施，如果有人用可携式地对空火箭炮攻击正在起降的美国班机，如果纽约或首都遭到电磁脉冲武器的攻击，后果如何？对于这种非对称攻击，即便是世界上最厉害的情报部门，也无法完全防范或阻止。

打击美国的指挥中枢

在战争时期，指挥、控制、通信、电脑、情报、监视和侦察系统（编者按：为简便缘故，专家以其英文的缩写合成为“C4ISR系统”）是主要的攻击目标，因为摧毁敌方的“C4ISR系统”，就能够使敌人陷入瘫痪和混乱从而将其击败。

美国拥有全球最强大和最现代化的军队，而且还拥有最先进最完善的“C4ISR系统”。其军事间谍卫星可以收集并即时传送情报资料。侦察卫星的感测器不仅可以从数百英里的高空，侦测到地球上只有1分米大小的物体，而且可以穿透云层、恶劣天气甚至是黑夜。有些间谍卫星还能监听电台和电话。

除了通信、情报、监视和侦察外，卫星还用于导航，特别是为弹道导弹、巡航导弹、飞机及其它智能武器系统指引方向。如果没有卫星导航，这些智慧精确武器就会变成难以辨认方向的“瞎子”。

“C4ISR系统”的不断改进也掀起了现代军事战争的革命。这些技术使得在全球范围内即时或接近同步收集、处理、传送情报资料成为了可能。因此，现代战争出现了一个新的军事守则：“若被敌军发现就必死无疑。”

与中国相比，美国的“C4ISR系统”拥有绝对的领先优势，而中国在短期内无法望其项背。所以一旦爆发军事冲突，中国若想与美国抗衡就必须利用非对称战争手段。这就意味着中国必须研制能够有效打击和破坏美国“C4ISR系统”的手段，而这正是中国军队20多年来的重要任务。

美国“C4ISR系统”的核心是高科技卫星，不过这也是其致命弱点所在。一旦主要卫星遭到攻击和破坏，那么美军的主力部队如航母舰队就会变成“瞎子”和“哑巴”，其攻击力大打折扣。这便是中国“以弱制强”的“杀手鐧”之一。这就好比一些女性藏在包里的梅斯毒气一样，在遇到抢劫或强暴的时候突然喷向罪犯的眼睛，使他暂时致盲以争取时间逃脱。

目前中国已经具备鉴别和追踪卫星的能力，而且过去20多年来一直致力于研发反卫星武器，其中包括机动性极高的纳卫星（Nano-Satellite）。纳卫星可以移动到目标卫星附近，通过电子干扰、电磁脉冲来扰乱目标，或是依附在目标上将其撞出轨道，甚至是自动爆炸和目标同归于尽。这种纳卫星可以通过公路机动性的DF21或DF31火箭成批发射升空。

中国正在研制的另一种反卫星利器是一种从地表发射的激光武器，它可以使目标卫星的感测器变盲甚至完全摧毁目标卫星。当然如果形势需要，中国还可以动用最后的手段，即高空核爆。当然中国使用核武器的前提条件是，在遭到严重攻击时尚未研制出其他有效的战略武器。一旦“C4ISR系统”被破坏，借用毛泽东的话来说，美国就像一个“空手抓鱼的瞎子”，结果当然是费力不讨好。

“点穴战”第四部分：航母作用名大于实

航空母舰是美国军事实力的主要支柱，是美国在全球范围内投射威慑力的重要工具。在这个方面，没有任何一个国家可以与之匹敌。目前美国拥有总共12支航母战斗群，而中国还没有。

2004年6月到8月，美国举行了包括7支航母战斗群在内的大型军事演习。这是美国海军历史上最大规模的一次演练，而且其演习的攻击范围可及中国的海岸线。这也是迄今为止最大规模的军力展示，其目的是为了提醒中国休要对台湾轻举妄动。

前文曾提到，中国拥有以弱制强的杀手鐧武器，但所谓的“鐧”并不止于可致盲的梅斯毒气喷雾，它的原意是指中国古时战争中普遍使用的致命性武器──狼牙棒或钉头锤。而中国现代化的“狼牙棒”，也许亦有能力消灭美国的航母舰队。

其一是中短程的弹道导弹，例如经过改装和改进的DF 21/CSS-5以及DF 15导弹，它们由终端制导的“再入式”飞行器运载（意指飞行器冲出大气层之后再之进入），其圆概率误差只有10米。像DF 21/CSS-5导弹，可以击中2500公里之外移动缓慢的海上目标。

第二种是射程可以达300公里以上的超音速和高精准巡航导弹，可通过潜艇、飞机、军舰甚至是普通军用卡车发射。值得一提的是，军用卡车十分适合在伊朗和波斯湾等地势作战。这些巡航导弹的飞行速度相当于音速的2.5倍，比子弹还快，而且可以配备常规、反辐射、热爆、电磁脉冲甚至是核弹头。而美国海军的“神盾”导弹防御系统和“密集阵近程武器系统”（Phalanx Close-in Defense）对超音速导弹的防御成功率仍然很低。

在首轮巡航导弹袭击之后，若中国继续发射一轮终端制导的中短程弹道导弹，势必会重创美国的航母舰队。无论美国有多少支航母舰队都无所谓，因为中国有足够的导弹储备。不幸的是，美国和英国的海军尚未具备对超音速导弹加弹道导弹的防御能力。

上述两种“杀手鐧”武器已经足以使航母舰队陷于瘫痪，不过第三种武器同样可怕，那就是以火箭为动力的超空泡“暴风”（Shkval）鱼雷。这种火箭鱼雷是由前苏联研制成功，后转让中国。鱼雷自重6000磅，时速高达230英里，射程约为7500码，可自动导航。由于鱼雷速度极快，因此航母和核潜艇要想避开 “暴风”的攻击是非常困难的，这让“暴风”成为了真正的潜艇和航母杀手。然而，美国及其盟军同样找不到有效的防御方法。

中国的第四种武器是超大型的火箭上浮水雷，可通过潜艇预先沿着航母舰队的航线在海底排布。水雷的主要攻击目标就是航母，而且可以利用成批的水雷进行密集式攻击。

最后一种武器便是被改装成无人驾驶攻击机的老式战斗机。中国拥有数千架老式战斗机，经过改装后可以载入超大油箱、反舰导弹和重磅炸弹。在精准的反舰导弹用尽之后，这些无人机最后还将对目标进行自杀式炸弹袭击，玉石俱焚。

综上所述，中国完全有能力运用这些“杀手鐧”武器来摧毁美国的航母舰队。中国虽然没有航空母舰，但却将整个大陆变成了一艘永不沉没的“航空母舰”，而且在面对美国及其盟军的航母舰队时毫不逊色。

即使美国领导人和军事家意识到航母舰队敌不过中国的“杀手鐧”，美国海军也不会调整战略或是弃用航空母舰。为建造这些武器系统，美国政府已经花费了数千亿美元，而且如果航母报废的话将会导致数万人失去工作。即使海军想要转变战略，势力庞大的军工业游说团体也不会答应。

假设中美两国因为台湾问题爆发军事冲突，被派往航母舰队的美国海军士兵无异于去送死。

美国面临的挑战

前文所阐述的美国十大致命伤（头五个请参看本文的第一部分）就像一把十钉锤，每一处都会给美国带来重创。笔者希望借此向美国防部、国会、总统顾问、各种研究机构及每一位美国人谏言。

如今，这场“大博弈”的角逐已经快要进入最后阶段了，而美国仍然夜郎自大。美国如果能够及时解决这10个难题，仍然有希望赢得胜利、继续当世界霸主、让21世纪成为美国的世纪。

然而，如果不能解决这些难题，美国这个伟大的国家将会崩溃、回到原点，就像世贸双子塔倒塌一般。如果输了，美国将失去余下的21世纪。

醒醒吧，美国！

http://www.atchinese.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=24225&Itemid=47

By Victor N Corpus

One could call this article a worst-case scenario for the new American century. Why worst case? Because of the hard lessons from history. The Romans did not consider the worst-case scenario when Hannibal crossed the Alps with his elephants and routed them; or when Hannibal encircled and annihilated the numerically superior Roman army at the Battle of Cannae.

The French did not consider the worst-case scenario at Dien Bien Phu and when they built the Maginot Line, and the French suffered disastrous defeats. The Americans did not consider the worst-case scenario at Pearl Harbor or on September 11, and the results were disastrous for the American people. Again, American planners did not consider the worst-case scenario in its latest war in Iraq, but instead operated on the "best-case scenario", such as considering the Iraq invasion a "cake walk" and that the Iraqi people would be parading in the streets, throwing flowers and welcoming American soldiers as "liberators", only to discover the opposite.

Scenario One: America launches 'preventive war' vs China

Our first objective is to prevent the re-emergence of a new rival. This is a dominant consideration underlying the new regional defense strategy and requires that we endeavor to prevent any hostile power from dominating a region whose resources would, under consolidated control, be sufficient to generate global power. These regions include Western Europe, East Asia, the territory of the former Soviet Union and Southwest Asia.

–Paul Wolfowitz, former US deputy secretary of defense and currently president of the World Bank

Consider these snapshots of China:

Since 1978, China has averaged 9.4% annual GDP growth

It had a five-fold increase in total output per capita from 1982 to 2002

It had $61 billion in foreign direct investment in 2004 alone and foreign trade of $851 billion, the third-largest in the world

The US trade deficit with China exceeded $200 billion in 2005

China has $750 billion in foreign exchange reserves and is the second-biggest oil importer

Last year it turned out 442,000 new engineers a year; with 48,000 graduates with master's degrees and 8,000 PhDs annually; compared to only 60,000 new engineers a year in the US.

China for the first time (2004) surpassed America to export the most technology wares around the world. China enjoyed a $34 billion trade surplus with the US in advanced technology products in 2004 (The Economist, December 17, 2005). In 2005, the surplus increased to $36 billion

It created 20,000 new manufacturing facilities a year

It holds $252 billion in US Treasury Bonds (plus $48 billion held by Hong Kong)

Among the five basic food, energy and industrial commodities –grain and meat, oil and coal and steel –consumption in China has eclipsed that of the US in all but oil.

China has also gone ahead of the US in the consumption of TV sets, refrigerators and mobile phones

In 1996, China had 7 million cell phones and the US had 44 million. Now China has more mobile phone users than the US has people.

China has about $1 trillion in personal savings and a savings rate of close to 50%; U.S. has about $158 billion in personal savings and a savings rate of about 2% (The Wall Street Journal, Nov 19, 2005)

Shanghai boasts 4,000 skyscrapers – double the number in New York City (The Wall Street Journal, Nov 19, 2005)

Songbei, Harbin City in north China is building a city as big as New York City

Goldman Sachs predicts that China will surpass the US economy by 2041.

Before China's economy catches up with America, and before China builds a military machine that can challenge American superpower status and world dominance, America's top strategic planners (Project for the New American Century) decide to launch a "preventive war" against China. As a pretext for this, the US instigates Taiwan to declare independence.

Taiwan declares independence!

China has anticipated and long prepared itself for this event. After observing "Operation Summer Pulse –04" when US aircraft carrier battle groups converged in the waters off China's coast in mid-July through August of 2004, Chinese planners began preparing to face its own worst-case scenario: the possibility of confronting a total of 15 carrier battle groups composed of 12 from America and three from its close British ally. China's strategists refer to its counter-strategy to defeat 15 or more aircraft carrier battle groups as the "assassin's mace" or shashaujian.

After proper coordination with Russia and Iran and activating their previously agreed strategic plan, troops and weapon systems are pre-positioned. China then launches a missile barrage on Taiwan. Command and control nodes, military bases, logistics centers, vital war industries, government centers and air defense installations are simultaneously hit with short and medium range ballistic missiles armed with conventional, anti-radar, thermo baric and electro-magnetic pulse warheads.

At the North American Aerospace Defense (NORAD) Command and Control Center, ranking defense officials watch huge electronic monitor screens showing seven US and two British aircraft carrier battle groups converging on the East China Sea with another three US carrier battle groups entering the Persian Gulf, while the remaining two US and one British battle groups remain in the Indian Ocean to serve as a strategic reserve.

As the aircraft carrier battle groups advance, China draws out one of its "trump cards" by leaking to the world media that it is dumping its holdings of US Treasury bonds and shifting to gold and euros.

Meanwhile, strategic planners at NORAD watch with glee as they observe on the screen as monitored by their radar satellites that Chinese surface ships are making a hasty retreat as nine allied carrier battle groups advance toward the Philippine Sea and Chinese waters near Taiwan.

The assassin's mace: China's anti-satellite weapons

Glee and ecstasy soon turn to shock as monitor screens suddenly go blank. Then all communication via satellites goes dead. China has drawn its second "trump card" (the assassin's mace) by activating its maneuverable "parasite" micro-satellites that have unknowingly clung to vital (NORAD) radar and communication satellites and have either jammed, blinded or physically destroyed their hosts.

This is complemented by space mines that maneuver near adversary satellites and explode. Secret Chinese and Russian ground-based anti-satellite laser weapons also blind or bring down US and British satellites used for C4ISR (command, control, communication, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance). And to ensure redundancy and make sure that the adversary C4ISR system is completely "blinded" even temporarily, hundreds of select Chinese and Russian information warriors (hackers) specifically trained to attack their adversary's C4ISR systems simultaneously launch their cyber offensive.

For a few precious minutes, the US and UK advancing carrier battle groups are stunned and blinded by the "mace", ie, a defensive weapon used to temporarily blind a stronger opponent. But the word mace has another meaning; one which is deadlier and used in combination with the first.

A mace can be a spiked war club used in olden times to knock out an opponent. Applied in modern times, the spikes of the assassin's mace refer to currently unstoppable supersonic cruise missiles capable of sinking aircraft carriers that are in China's inventory; complemented by equally unstoppable "squall" or SHKVAL rocket torpedoes and regular 65 cm-diameter wake-homing torpedoes, bottom-rising rocket-propelled mines, and "obsolete" warplanes converted into unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs) firing anti-ship missiles from standoff positions and finally dive-bombing into the heart of the US and UK aircraft carrier armada.

Missile barrage on advancing carrier battle groups

A few seconds after the "blackout", literally hundreds of short and medium-range ballistic missiles (DF7/9/11/15s, DF4s, DF21X/As, some of which are maneuverable) pre-positioned on the Chinese mainland, and stealthy, sea-skimming and highly-accurate cruise missiles (YJ12s, YJ22s, KH31A/Ps, YJ83s, C301s, C802s, SS-N-22s, SS-NX-26/27s, 3M54s & HN3s) delivered from platforms on land, sea and air race toward their respective designated targets at supersonic speed.

Aircraft carriers are allotted a barrage of more than two dozen cruise missiles each, followed by a barrage of short and medium-range ballistic missiles timed to arrive in rapid succession.

Supersonic cruise missiles constitute China's third deadly "trump card" against the US – part of the so-called assassin's mace. These unstoppable cruise missiles may be armed with 440-lb to 750-lb conventional warheads (or 200-kiloton tactical nuclear warheads 10 times stronger than Hiroshima) traveling at more than twice the speed of sound (or faster than a rifle bullet).

The cruise missiles, together with the SRBMs and MRBMs (short and medium-range ballistic missiles) may also be armed with radio frequency weapons that can simulate the electro-magnetic pulse of nuclear explosions to fry computer chips, or fuel-air explosives that can annihilate the personnel in aircraft carriers and battleships without destroying the platforms.

Their effective range varies from less than 100 to 1,800 kilometers from stand-off positions. Delivered by long-range fighter-bombers and submarines, their range can be extended even further. In fact, stealthy Chinese and Russian submarines can deliver such nuclear payloads to the US mainland itself.

No US defense vs supersonic cruise missiles

The US and UK aircraft carrier battle groups do not have any known defense against the new supersonic missiles of their adversaries. The Phalanx and Aegis ship defense systems may be effective against subsonic cruise missiles like the Exocets or Tomahawks, or exo-atmospheric ballistic missiles, but they are inadequate against the sea-skimming and supersonic Granits, Moskits and Yakhonts or similar types (Shipwreck, Sunburn and Onyx - North Atlantic Treaty Organization codenames) of modern anti-ship missiles in China's inventory.

Not only China and Russia have these modern cruise missiles, so do Iran, India and North Korea. These missiles can be delivered by SU-27 variants, SU-30s, Tu22M Blackjacks, Bears, J6s, JH-7/As, H-6Hs, J-10s, surface ships, diesel submarines or common trucks.

Adding to the problems facing aircraft carriers are the SHKVAL or "squall" rocket torpedoes installed in some Chinese and Russian submarines and surface ships. At 6,000 lbs apiece, these torpedoes travel at 200 knots (or 230 miles per hour) with a range of 7,500 yards guided by autopilot. They are designed to sink aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines. Again, it is unfortunate for the US and UK to have no known or existing defenses against this new generation of rocket torpedoes.

China's sea mines

Complicating matters for the US aircraft carrier battle groups are the hundreds of hard-to-detect, rocket-propelled, bottom-rising sea mines that are anchored and hidden on the sea bottom covering pre-selected battle sites in the East China Sea and the Philippine Sea designed to home in on submarines and surface ships, particularly aircraft carriers.

These sophisticated sea mines (EM-52s) have been deployed by Chinese and Russian submarines before the missile attack on Taiwan in anticipation of the major event that is to follow.

Finally, in addition to all these asymmetric weapons, the US and UK aircraft carrier battle groups will have to contend with the thousands of "obsolete" Chinese fighter planes converted into unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs) launching missiles at stand-off positions and finally diving kamikaze-style into the heart of the carrier battle groups.

Chinese and Russian submarines fire their inventory of anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs) and "squall" rocket torpedoes at the aircraft carriers and submarines of the US and UK as the carrier battle groups come within range. As the battle progresses, the Chinese and Russian submarines maneuver to the rear of the carrier battle groups to complete the encirclement.

In less than an hour after launching the saturation barrage of missiles on the US and UK naval armada, all the aircraft carriers and their escorts of cruisers, battleships and several of the accompanying submarines are in flames, sinking or sunk, turning the East China Sea and the Philippine Sea into a modern-day "Battle of Cannae".

Meanwhile, the Chinese fleet that conducted a strategic retreat forms a phalanx along the forward positions off China's coast, ready to augment the hundreds or thousands of land-based long-range surface-to-air missiles of China (SA-10s, SA-15s and SA-20s) with their own short, medium and long-range air defense missile systems.

Applying its long-held military doctrine of "active defense", China also launches simultaneous missile attacks on the forces-in-being and logistics-in-place of the US and its allies in Japan, South Korea, Guam, Okinawa, Diego Garcia and Kyrgyzstan, hitting these US bases with missiles armed with radio frequency weapons, fuel-air explosives and conventional warheads. As another Chinese military doctrine states: "Win victory with one strike."

Chinese and Russian missiles cocked

Both Chinese and Russian inter-continental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and the two countries' extensive air defense systems have been coordinated and ready to respond in the event that the US and UK decide to retaliate with a nuclear attack.

In addition, Ranets-E and Rosa-E radio frequency/electro-magnetic pulse systems scattered all along China's coastal cities are on the look-out to neutralize incoming missiles and aircraft that may respond after the attack on the aircraft carrier battle groups. These systems can work in tandem with airborne-based anti-missile laser systems now in China's inventory.

China's trump cards vs the US

China's deadly "trump cards" (ie, the huge holdings of US Treasury bonds, the anti-satellite weapons system, the supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles, SRBMs, MRBMs, "squall" rocket torpedoes, sea mines, UCAVs, DF31A and DF41 road-mobile ICBMs, JL2 SLBMs, air defense system, IO/EW/IW, and other RMA weapons) are the key ingredients of the assassin's mace.

China may not possess any of those expensive aircraft carriers of the superpower, but it can wipe out those carrier battle groups with a "single blow" of its assassin's mace or shashaujian –its major tool for conducting asymmetric warfare to defeat the US in a major confrontation over the Taiwan issue or other issues.

The US may possess the most powerful war machine in the world, but it can be defeated by an inferior force by avoiding the superpower's strength and exploiting its weaknesses. Again, an integral part of Chinese doctrine is: "Victory through inferiority over superiority." One famous Chinese strategist, Chang Mengxiong, compared asymmetric warfare to "a Chinese boxer with a keen knowledge of vital body points who can bring a stronger opponent to his knees with a minimum of movement".

The sad part for the American people, particularly the innocent sailors who will be manning the battle groups, is that even if US planners come to realize that the aircraft carrier battle groups (which are the mainstay of the US Navy and the main instrument of US power projection worldwide), have been rendered vulnerable or obsolete by China's assassin's mace.

The US cannot simply change strategy or discard such a weapons system. To change strategy or "retool" would mean wasting hundreds of billions of dollars invested in those highly sophisticated systems. The strong lobbying of influential defense contractors making those systems would make change extremely difficult.

For defense authorities to admit the strategic blunder constitutes an almost insurmountable barrier to a change of strategy. And finally, the loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs related to those systems may be politically and economically unbearable for any US administration to bear should the program for the aircraft carrier battle groups be scrapped. Because of these factors, America may be stuck with an obsolete system that is too expensive to maintain but will only lose the war for the US when employed in a major conflict.

Meanwhile, on the Middle East Front

On another major front, on previously coordinated signals with China and Russia, Iran lets loose its own barrage of supersonic Granit, Moskit, Brahmos and Yakhont cruise missiles carried by trucks or hidden in man-made tunnels all along the mountainous shoreline of Iran fronting the Persian Gulf.

The three US aircraft carrier groups that entered the Persian Gulf to ensure the unhindered flow of Arab oil are likely to be helpless "sitting ducks" against the bottom-rising sea mines and low-flying, supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles in Iranian hands. In the process, a couple of oil tankers about to exit the Strait of Hormuz are hit with the aid of rocket-propelled sea mines, thus effectively blockading the narrow strait and stopping oil supplies from coming out of the Middle East.

A "weak" nation like China or Iran, without a single aircraft carrier in their respective navies, could thus obliterate the carrier battle groups of a superpower. Here, one can see the hidden and often unnoticed power of asymmetric warfare, which may well spell the end of "gunboat diplomacy" in the not so distant future.

The Central Asian front

On yet another major front in Central Asia, Russian troops lead the other member-countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO - Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan) into a major offensive against US military bases in Central Asia.

The bases are first subjected to a simultaneous barrage of missiles with fuel-air explosives and electromagnetic pulse (EMP) warheads before they are overrun and occupied by SCO coalition forces. The missile attack on the US bases is followed by a lightning attack by four mechanized armored divisions coming from the Yili Korgas pass of China's Xinjiang province, linking up with Russia's own armored divisions in a pincer offensive against US forces in Central Asia and the Middle East.

America crippled on three major fronts

In just a few hours (or days) after the outbreak of general hostilities, America, the world's lone superpower, finds itself badly crippled militarily in three major regions of the world: East Asia, Central Asia and the Middle East.

Impossible? Unfortunately, the answer is no. China now has the know-how and the financial resources to mass-produce hundreds, if not thousands, of Moskit, Yakhont and Granit-type supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles and "squall"-type rocket torpedoes against which US and UK aircraft carriers and submarines have no known defense.

Iran, on the other hand, already possesses the same supersonic cruise missiles that can destroy any ship in the Persia Gulf, including aircraft carriers. Russia and China, meanwhile, are operating on familiar grounds close to their territory, compared to the US, which needs to cross the Atlantic and Pacific to replenish troops and logistics.

A geopolitical reality America has to face

An important consideration in any US-China conflict is the geopolitical reality that the US and its allies will be operating on exterior lines, while China will operate on interior lines. This gives China a huge advantage in a major war in Asia against US and allied forces.

Consider the long sea lanes of communication (10,000 kilometers) that the US alliance would be forced to cross each time its forces had to resupply and you get an idea of the huge logistics problem that the US would face in a confrontation with China.

Such lengthy sea lanes of communication (SLOC) are highly vulnerable to a gauntlet of Chinese and Russian submarines lying in ambush along the route laden with underwater sea mines. This will make transporting personnel and equipment by the US over the Pacific or the Atlantic extremely dangerous and expensive.

Compare this US handicap with troop movement by Chinese troops using heavy-lift aircraft, railways and highways within the China mainland. China's interior lines of communication are shorter and protected, with little chance for enemy interdiction. Chinese troops can concentrate numerically superior forces rapidly at any given point to defeat invading US forces one by one with much shorter and less vulnerable lines of communication.

And in the event that the US forces and their allies are lucky enough to land on the Chinese mainland, they will be faced not only with a conventional People's Liberation Army of more than 2 million, but also with a people's militia conducting asymmetric warfare and a people's war in its teeming millions. US forces and their allies will be like a raging bull charging and goring a hive of killer bees. US forces may be able to set foot in China, but it is highly doubtful if they could come out alive.

Grimmer scenarios

There is a scenario grimmer than described above, however, and that is if strategic planners belonging to that elite group called the Project for the New American Century decide to launch a nuclear "first strike" against China and Russia and risk a mutually-assured destruction: 1)In defense of Taiwan ... or 2) In launching a "preventive war" to stop China from catching up economically and militarily. Or, if China decides to start an offensive against Taiwan with a one-megaton nuclear burst 40 kilometers above the center of the island. Or, if China and Russia decide to arm a number of their short and medium-range ballistic missiles and supersonic cruise missiles with tactical nuclear warheads in defending themselves against US and UK aircraft carrier battle groups.

Land-attack versions of these supersonic cruise missiles armed with nuclear warheads carried by stealthy Chinese and Russian submarines can also put American coastal cities at great risk to nuclear devastation. Strategic planners must also consider these worst-case possibilities.

Scenario two: America vs a medium power

"In the Middle East and Southwest Asia, our overall objective is to remain the predominant outside power in the region and preserve US and Western access to the region's oil." - Paul Wolfowitz

"I cannot think of a time when we have had a region emerge as suddenly to become as strategically significant as the Caspian. But the oil and gas there is worthless until it is moved. The only route which makes both political and economic sense is through Afghanistan." – Dick Cheney in 1998 as chief executive of a major oil services company

History is replete with vivid examples where a much stronger and larger force has been defeated by a weaker and smaller force. The French were defeated by Vietminh guerrillas in Dien Bien Phu. Soviet Union forces, still a superpower at that time, were defeated in Afghanistan. And another superpower, the United States, was defeated by "ill-clad, ill-fed and ill-armed" Vietcong guerrillas in Vietnam.

Asymmetric warfare

If the US pushes through its plan of world domination, then it should expect all the smaller and weaker countries that do not wish to be pushed around to fight back using asymmetric warfare. This is a form of warfare that allows the weak to fight and defeat a much stronger foe by "attacking the enemy's weakness while avoiding his strengths".

The US, for instance, may possess the most sophisticated weapons system on Earth. It may have the most modern planes, helicopters, ships, guns, precision-guided weapons, sophisticated sensors and command and control systems, but if it cannot see its adversary, if it is fighting a shadowy and "invisible" enemy (like American and British forces are experiencing in Iraq), such advanced and sophisticated weapons systems are rendered useless.

In asymmetric warfare, most of the fighting is conducted at the team level. Thousands of agile and elusive teams consisting of two to five members equipped with man-portable surface-to-air missiles, portable anti-tank guided weapons, sniper rifles, man-portable mortars, anti-tank mines, anti-personnel mines, sea mines, C4 explosives (for making car bombs, booby-traps and improvised explosive devices or IEDs) riding on bicycles and motorcycles and fast boats will make the lives of any invading or occupying forces extremely miserable.

These "invisible" agile teams merge with the population most of the time and come out only when there is a vulnerable target to strike at. Then, they disappear into the shadows. They communicate via runners bringing coded written messages, so there are no electronic signals to track down. They operate semi-autonomously, so there are no centers of gravity that can be targeted.

And since they are indigenous to the area and united with the local people, their human intelligence (humint) is far more superior to that of the invaders. They will also enjoy a tremendous advantage in psychological operations (psyops), for it is much easier to mobilize nationalist sentiments against a foreign occupier than for an aggressor to justify occupation.

Asymmetric warfare may be compared to a fierce lion invading the territory of a school of piranhas; or a king cobra encroaching into a colony of fire ants. The lion may be the king of beasts, mighty and strong, but it is no match against the tiny piranhas in their own territory. The sharp fangs and claws of the lion are rendered useless. The same is true with the cobra's venom. The analogy applies to the French in Dien Bien Phu, the Soviets in Afghanistan and the Americans in Vietnam and now in Iraq.

Asynchronous warfare

Aside from asymmetric warfare, weak nations fighting the strong can also avail themselves of asynchronous warfare. If a strong nation invades or occupies a weak one, the weak bides its time before striking back. And it strikes at a time and place when and where the adversary least expects.

An example is Iraq. The underground resistance movement in Iraq may recruit Iraqi scientists or sympathetic scientists of other nationalities to infiltrate the US (via the Mexican border, for instance) and manufacture dirty bombs as well as chemical and biological weapons inside the US. Such weapons may be brought to Washington and detonated in or near the US Congress.

They could also hire a private plane, or buy one themselves, and use it to spread biological or chemical weapons they have manufactured in-country over New York or Washington. They can mail letters containing anthrax to key offices of vital services all over the US and paralyze utilities and other government functions nationwide.

Or they can smuggle, say, the components of a hundred portable surface-to-air missiles, assemble them in the US, and employ them simultaneously in all of the major airports in America. Or they can employ those portable surface-to-air missiles to simultaneously target American airlines taking off or landing in different international airports all over the world.

Some major powers may pass on their research on RMA (revolution in military affairs) to the Iraqi resistance to be tested inside the US. These weapons include laser weapons, ultrahigh frequency weapons, ultrasonic wave weapons, stealth weapons, high-powered microwave weapons and electromagnetic guns. They include miniature robot ants that infiltrate computers, stay dormant and then activate on the signal to destroy their hosts. The Iraqi underground could also recruit hackers to work inside and/or outside the US to hack into key US systems.

American crossroad

As the sole superpower, the US stands at a critical crossroad. One road leads to world domination. Using its pre-eminent military war machine without equal, it can strike at any perceived threat, change foreign sovereign regimes at will, grab precious mineral resources anywhere in the world and control local economies with its host of transnational corporations. It can also sabotage the economy of up-coming rivals, or launch preventive wars to preempt prospective competitors and try to defeat them militarily while they are still weak compared to America.

Such a course of action is very tempting, especially to leaders with global ambitions of becoming "Lords of the Earth". But such a road is full of risks and what is planned on paper, as what was done in Iraq, may not turn out as hoped. And such a path will necessarily ignite the outrage of most right-thinking people. America will earn for itself the enmity and hatred of people all over the world.

America had outlined its blueprint for world domination, by force if necessary, in the following documents:

National Security Strategy of the United States of America, September 2001

President George W Bush's speech at the Graduation Ceremony at West Point, June 1, 2002

Rebuilding America's Defenses: Strategy, Forces and Resources for the New Century, a report of the Project for the New American Century, September 2000

Defense Planning Guidance written by then deputy defense secretary Paul Wolfowitz in February 18, 1992

In these documents, the US outlined some of its new doctrines and policies, such as: preventive war, pre-emptive military action, unilateralism, regime change, acting as the world's constabulary or "cavalry", establishment of military bases and spreading US forces all over the world, control of outer space and the global commons of cyberspace and control of the world's oil resources.

The alternate road, on the other hand, leads to world leadership. The US can choose to use its power, wealth and influence to sincerely do good for the people on this planet. It can lead in easing or obliterating the debt burden of poor nations, or in promoting the spread of quality education through distance learning in remote villages of developing countries.

It can focus in the fight against poverty, or the fight against drugs, or the effort to save the deteriorating environment of planet earth. It can lead the fight against HIV/AIDS, or malaria and other deadly diseases. The whole world is waiting for the US to lead in these important battles.

If the US chooses to focus its huge resources on the latter, I am confident that it will gain the hearts and minds of people all over the world. Then it can be a true world leader. Then it can maintain its preeminent world status. By gaining the world's sympathy and support, terrorism directed against Americans and the US mainland will be greatly minimized. The alternate road, in fact, is the key to defeating the phenomenon of "terrorism" gripping the world today.


Victor N Corpus is a retired brigadier general. He has a master's degree in public administration from the Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University. His major assignment while serving in the armed forces of the Philippines was as chief of the intelligence service.



(Copyright 2006 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)


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天呢！ 卡总实在不是寻常人物   这样的军事情报专业文章也能中英并列转到湾坛
姑且不论看懂多少内里门道或个中利害分段 见识的增长就已不可计量