If we have to put on our critical thinking hat, I have to say that this whole gun shot incident smells like a fish, walks like a fish, and it's most likely a fish.
the previous posting is a very good one indeed, and a logical one. Unfortunately, critical thinking is just as rare as common sense, especially when u are dealing with mass. Chen is positioned to benefit tremendouly from the incident, so at least he's got the motive to do it. and if you follow the election, his motivation for winning this election is very, very high. Besides, as long as he win the election, he will make sure that the truth is never to be found. and if he loses, no body will care to find out probably. so one way or the other, Chen is safe. although I have no good opinion of him, I respect his cause (Taiwan's independence), I am impressed with his ruthlessness in his pursuit of ends, but I despise his character.