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主题 : China, Strong but fragile
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楼主  发表于: 2008-02-17   

China, Strong but fragile

最近在看一本书, 叫 China Fragile Superpower.  是一中国通写的。  蛮好看的。

还有,周恩来认识这个作家。  真羡慕这作家呀。
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17楼  发表于: 2008-03-09   
marked....................................................
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16楼  发表于: 2008-03-09   
  谢谢楼主的分享,不用俺这个文化程度不高的人去啃不明白的书了
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15楼  发表于: 2008-03-09   
这本书偶看了一半,感觉中国共产党非常聪明,脑筋非常灵活, 手段非常柔软。    嘿嘿, 俄国最大的错误可能就是把苏共赶下台吧,可惜历史是没有如果。

俄国男人平均寿命是50岁,人口负增长。中国男人平均寿命70岁, 人口爆炸。

很好奇俄国走中国同样的路俄国今天会是怎么样的。
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14楼  发表于: 2008-02-21   
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[ 此帖被crazy8在09-30-2011 20:12重新编辑 ]
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
Mark Twain (1835 - 1910)
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13楼  发表于: 2008-02-20   
Personally, I don't think China can be at peace with itself.    It hates itself and it loves itself.
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12楼  发表于: 2008-02-20   
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引用第11楼crazy8于02-20-2008 20:51发表的  :
agree!  Chinese living in China, HongKong, Taiwan and Overseas have different emontional attachment with the motherland. 

嘿嘿
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11楼  发表于: 2008-02-20   
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[ 此帖被crazy8在09-30-2011 20:14重新编辑 ]
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
Mark Twain (1835 - 1910)
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10楼  发表于: 2008-02-19   
When an American wrote a book about China, especially its government, is very easy to arouse emotion among the Chinese.  When I am writing this book review, I am trying very hard not to praise or attack the government.   
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9楼  发表于: 2008-02-19   
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[ 此帖被crazy8在09-30-2011 20:17重新编辑 ]
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
Mark Twain (1835 - 1910)
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8楼  发表于: 2008-02-19   
书里有句话我觉得很悲凉
:"Prosperity in China now has coincided with nearly three decades of the greatest social and political stability that China has seen in more than a century.  How long can it last?"  Pg 29

中国人在这一百年里只过过三十年的好日子, 感觉很悲凉。
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7楼  发表于: 2008-02-19   
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引用第5楼crazy8于02-19-2008 19:05发表的  :
where can I buy this book?  Chapter?

偶在图书馆借的, 比较有保障, 外面太多中国的书, 看不过来。
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6楼  发表于: 2008-02-19   
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引用第5楼crazy8于02-19-2008 19:05发表的  :
where can I buy this book?  Chapter?


http://www.amazon.com/China-Superpower-Internal-Politics-Peaceful/dp/0195306090/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1203479002&sr=8-1


Editorial Reviews

From The Washington Post's Book World/washingtonpost.com
Reviewed by John Pomfret

Susan L. Shirk starts out her revelatory book on China with a nightmare scenario. A Chinese SU-27 fighter and a Taiwanese F-16 collide over the Taiwan Strait. The incident spirals out of control when the Chinese do what they always do in a crisis: blame the other guy. Demonstrations erupt in Beijing. Protesters demand that the Communist Party confront Taiwan and the United States. "When will China finally stand up?" read the signs. Washington scrambles as Beijing readies for war.

This brief, fictional opening frames Shirk's book, dramatizing the possibility that China's communist leadership could lurch into combat with Taiwan and the United States, which is obligated to defend the island nation under the Taiwan Relations Act. She sets out to explain why it is not a mere fantasy and why we, basically, need to be nice to China to keep the nightmare at bay.

At a time when much writing about China frothily presumes the unstoppable rise of a global titan, it is refreshing that a respected academic and former government official (Shirk was the deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asia during the second Clinton administration) questions the notion that China is going to run the world. "China may be an emerging superpower," she writes, "but it is a fragile one."

Inside China, she argues, the party leadership is hemmed in by threats to its stability: a rapidly aging population, the rise of the Internet, privatization of the economy, a widening gap between urban rich and rural poor, a restive population fed up with corruption, pollution that not only sickens but kills, mounting unemployment in an economy that needs to grow 7 percent annually just to provide jobs for 25 million new people entering the workforce. "All around them," Shirk contends, "the leaders see new social forces unleashed by economic reforms that could subvert the regime." Moreover, Shirk describes a regime -- half Mafia, half corporate board -- so obsessed with staying in power that it is ill-equipped to deal with these challenges. In a country where communist ideology is dead and a dog-eat-dog form of capitalism is ascendant, you'd think economic interests would be supreme. That's not the case, Shirk argues. After the crackdown on student-led protests in Tiananmen Square in 1989, the military and security services gained even more power than they already had in a society built on Chairman Mao's maxim that "political power grows out of the barrel of a gun."

The minister of public security is a Politburo member for the first time since the Cultural Revolution, Shirk notes, but only one person with business experience has become an alternate member of the party's Central Committee, a significantly lower rank. The security services have joined with the organizations that handle propaganda and personnel to create what Shirk calls "the control cartel" devoted to pushing the party's new ideology, a virulent form of nationalism.

Force-fed to China's people through programs such as the "Patriotic Education Campaign" (for all college students), nationalism nurtures "popular resentments against Japan and America and an expectation that Taiwan would soon be reunified," Shirk writes. Look at China's reaction to the food, toy and toothpaste scandals created by shoddy products: Instead of acknowledging the concerns of Western consumers, the Chinese Communist Party's propaganda organs have gone into attack mode, branding these worries as a campaign to isolate and weaken China. The problem, Shirk says, is that this form of nationalism has "boxed the CCP and its leaders into a corner." With reactions like these, she asks, "how can they stabilize relations with these important countries on which China's economic growth, and its political stability, depend?"

Shirk's book shines when she shows how this resentful nationalism has hurt China's relations with Japan and the United States. She depicts ties with Washington as prone to troubles, partly because the Chinese government lacks a crisis-management system. Shirk uses two case studies -- the accidental U.S. bombing of China's embassy in Yugoslavia in 1999 and the collision between a U.S. spy plane and a Chinese jet fighter in 2001 -- to show how the Chinese leadership has become hostage to the expectations churned up by the very nationalism it has fomented. She contends that the Ministry of Propaganda and the People's Liberation Army jumped to blame the United States for both crises and presented unrealistic demands that made it difficult for the Chinese government to back down.

So how to deal with this economic giant that exhibits all the maturity of a muscular teenager? Here Shirk's fine book breaks down. She wants the United States to soft pedal China's human rights violations because, she argues, "America's overriding national interest lies in averting a war." In addition, she calls on the U.S. government to stop pressuring Japan to build up its military. And she advises U.S. officials to give China "face" -- or respect -- whenever possible.

I'd counter that, while Shirk is right to be vigilant about preventing a conflict, she exaggerates the threat. To bolster her argument that Chinese nationalism needs our utmost attention, she compares resurgent China with Japan and Germany in the 1930s. Squeeze China too much, she argues, and you'll get World War III. But, historically, China has been a far more fragmented society than either Germany or Japan. Faced with a grave threat to their nation's survival from the Japanese invasion that began in the '30s, what did China's elite do? They barely battled the Japanese and continued their civil war. One Chinese person is a dragon, a Chinese saying goes, but three of us are just an insect.

Shirk has written an important book at an important moment, with the Beijing Olympics approaching and a new Chinese product scandal breaking practically every week. China: Fragile Superpower should change our assessment of China's leadership, which is a lot less stable than many of us thought. But her overriding fear of war skews her view of the Chinese and of how America should deal with them.

Copyright 2007, The Washington Post. All Rights Reserved.


Review

"Susan Shirk has written the definitive book at the right time. For those seeking an objective look at the new China, your search is over. The bonus is that Fragile Superpower is as fascinating as it is informative. A great accomplishment."--Madeleine K. Albright, former U.S. Secretary of State

"Shirk's depth of knowledge about China - including personal acquaintance with many of its leaders - makes this book a valuable read."--Christian Science Monitor

"Ms. Shirk's magisterial book gazes down on China from above."--The Economist

"Now more than ever we need a realistic approach for dealing with China's rising power. Susan Shirk has an insider's grasp of China's politics and a firm understanding of what makes its leaders tick. China: Fragile Superpower is an important and necessary book."--Brent Scowcroft, former U.S. National Security Advisor

"In this eye-opening work, Susan Shirk details China's incredible economic progress while lifting the rug on its severe internal problems. She has injected a dose of realism into a distorted vision of China which has been promoted by gushing China watchers who focus on Shanghai's skyline."--James Lilley, Former American Ambassador to South Korea and China

"Although other problems dominate the news today, a rising China presents America's greatest long-term challenge. Susan Shirk's excellent book argues compellingly that it also poses the greatest challenge to China's leaders. How they meet this challenge affects not only China, but also the U.S. and, indeed, the world."--William J. Perry, former U.S. Secretary of Defense

"Susan Shirk's lively and perceptive book examines the constraints on Chinese foreign policy in an era of rapid socio-economic change. Shirk brings a wealth of experience as an astute observer of Chinese politics and as a practitioner of track I and II diplomacy toward China to illuminate the relationship between domestic legitimacy dilemmas and foreign security dilemmas."--Alastair Iain Johnston, The Laine Professor of China in World Affairs, Harvard University

"Susan Shirk's lively and perceptive book examines the constraints on Chinese foreign policy in an era of rapid socio-economic change.... Shirk brings a wealth of experience as an astute observer of Chinese politics and as a practitioner of track I and II diplomacy toward China to illuminate the relationship between domestic legitimacy dilemmas and foreign security dilemmas."-- Alastair Iain Johnston, The Laine Professor of China in World Affairs, Harvard

"A major statement about the present condition of China's political system and the hidden hazards on the road ahead."--Andrew Walder Professor of Sociology, Stanford University

"In her extremely convincing book, she shows that there is another emotional side which, driven by unresolved internal tensions, could still push China into a military confrontation."--Financial Times
“If a man does not keep pace with his companions, perhaps it is because he hears a different drummer. Let him step to the music which he hears, however measured or far away.”  -----  Henry David Thoreau
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5楼  发表于: 2008-02-19   
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[ 此帖被crazy8在09-30-2011 20:00重新编辑 ]
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
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地下室  发表于: 2008-02-18   
虽然中国和美国都不愿意这样子, 但是这二个国家非常非常需要对方。 
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地板  发表于: 2008-02-18   
中国不仅希望被人尊重, 还希望被人喜欢。  用中国自己的话说  :peaceful arising,中国是爱好和平的国家。  我这么爱好和平, 大家一定会喜欢我。 事实上, 中国是很努力的在维持亚洲的和平。

我个人的看法, 中国做superpower还希望被人喜欢是在做梦。  从西班牙到美国, 没有一个superpower没有被人骂到臭头。 
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板凳  发表于: 2008-02-18   
书里有一个很有趣的观点,  作者觉得中国做为一个superpower,是一个humble的国家, 但同时又是一个很骄傲的国家。 

中国觉得自己是一个superpower, 觉得它的地位没有得到相对的尊重, 中国为此觉得不快乐。  但同时中国又希望自己可以不插手其它国家的事务, 因为它不希望自己卷入他国的战事。  但如果它不卷入他国的战事的话, nobody will take China seriously.   

我个人读后感是世界没有甘蔗二头甜的事。  所以, 中国要么继续就痛苦, 要么就学美国把军队开到其他国家。
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沙发  发表于: 2008-02-18   
有色又要讲什么观点了?

沙发哈
没有人是一座孤岛,可以自全。每个人都是大陆的一片,整体的一部分,……任何人的死亡都是我的损失,因为我是人类的一员。因此,不要问丧钟为谁而鸣,它就为你而鸣。
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