大宗商品暴跌 引发市场恐慌zt

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大宗商品价格周四暴跌，领跌的油价创下两年多以来最大跌幅，并引发股市抛售。

道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数(Dow Jones Industrial Average)下跌139.41点，收于12584.17点，跌幅1.1%，创近两个月来连续两天最大跌幅。在此之前，美国股市大体上没有受到原材料价格连续一周低迷走势的冲击。

芝加哥期货经纪服务公司Lind-Waldock资深市场策略师Frank Cholly说，这是大规模的套现了结，我认为不过是对冲基金受了惊吓，投资者纷纷夺门而逃，好像是传染一样。

担心过热市场的情绪似乎引发了美国股市的抛售，此前股市整整一周都呈现上涨态势。如果原材料价格继续下滑，将缓解艰难应对生产成本上涨的公司的压力，因每加仑4美元的汽油零售价及不断上涨的食品价格而深受影响的消费者的压力也会有所缓解。

但大宗商品投资者和分析师说，全球对自然资源的胃口依然很大，这可能会防止大宗商品价格长时间大幅下跌。


Bloomberg News
加利福尼亚州贝克斯菲尔德，停在雪佛龙克恩河油田办公室停车场的一辆油泵车。周四，油价大跌8.6%，至每桶99.80美元，创3月中旬以来的最低收盘价。被视为全球经济晴雨表而受到密切关注的另一项大宗商品铜，连续第二天下跌3%，棉花和糖也出现下跌，继续近来的下滑态势。

荷兰合作银行(Rabobank)农业分析师弗拉里(Keith Flury)说，我们发现基金和投机者都在审视自己资产负债表上的大宗商品，希望消除这项风险。

标准普尔500指数(Standard & Poor's 500-stock index)所有10大类股全线下跌，其中能源和材料类股领跌。埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil Corp.)跌2.6%，美国铝业公司(Alcoa Inc.)跌2.6%，雪佛龙公司(Chevron Corp.)跌2%。在周四交易日的最后一小时里，有约15分钟的时间，股票迅速下滑，道指曾一度暴跌200多点。

抛售后，投资者即将迎来周五发布的美国月度就业报告，该报告可能引发市场进一步陷入恐慌。

周五开盘后不久，亚洲股市便继续下跌之势。日经指数(Nikkei)平均下跌1.7%，澳大利亚S&P/ASX 200指数跌0.3%，韩国综合指数(Kospi Composite)跌1.3%，新西兰NZX-50指数跌0.1%。

与此同时，长期疲软的美元下跌势头暂缓，周四兑欧元上涨2%。此前，欧洲央行(European Central Bank)行长特里谢(Jean-Claude Trichet)的言论被投资者视为欧洲央行不太可能在6月加息的信号。美元走强一般来说不利于以美元计价的大宗商品，因为这会让大宗商品对美国以外的买家而言显得更为昂贵。

原材料价格走低消除了公司不得不涨价的部分压力，也为仍深陷高失业状况的消费者减轻了些许负担。美国劳工部周四发布的数据显示，上周首次申领失业救济金的人数增至去年夏季以来的最高水平。

相应地，原材料价格下跌可能还会让美联储(Federal Reserve)加息的可能性降低。很多分析师预计，美联储因担心加息会抑制美国经济复苏，可能最早要到2012年才会做出加息举动。

花旗集团(Citigroup)旗下大宗商品研究机构Citi Futures的分析师埃文斯(Tim Evans)说，他预计汽油零售价不会因油价下跌而立即下调。但他说，汽油价格可能已达到或接近今年的峰值。周一，美国汽油零售价涨至平均每加仑3.96美元。美国期货市场油价连续第四天下跌，本周下跌了12.4%。

不过，即便最近价格纷纷下跌，包括原油、铜、棉花和小麦等在内的大宗商品仍比一年前贵得多。

大宗商品出现最新一轮波动之际，银价已暴跌长达一周，周四跌幅升级至8%。截止上周五，银价全年涨幅为161%，但在四天内下挫25%。

银价的突然逆转起到了导火索的作用，让投资者开始担心大宗商品价格涨得太多涨得太快，已经开始脱离了供需的基本制约。

美国最新的数据显示，2月份汽油的需求与去年同期基本持平，这表明昂贵的原油和汽油已经在侵蚀家庭的预算。

Petromatrix能源通讯编辑雅各布（Olivier Jakob）说，主要问题总是在需求这边。他说，投资者已经消化了最近中东骚乱对石油供应的影响。

世界各地的农民正在大量生产糖和棉花，减轻了对供应短缺的担忧，这种担忧去年曾使价格急剧攀升。周四，棉价和糖价分别跌4.5%和2.3%，目前分别比2011年的高峰值下跌23% 和41%。

随着各种商品纷纷走低，银价的暴跌加剧了大宗商品全线上扬可能会减弱的普遍担忧。但许多观察人士仍然相信，引发去年以来涨价潮的动力，即快速增长的发展中国家想购买更多的稀缺自然资源，不久将会再占上风。

使用电脑程序快速交易的趋势跟踪基金有时可能会逢跌卖出。Man Investment对冲基金研究业务全球交易负责人恩曼（Mark Enman）说，我们认为引发抛售潮的就是这些基金。但他又说，跟踪供需状况的大宗商品投资者可能在“趁低买入”。

美元突然升值可能也不会持续很长时间。大宗商品价格下跌会导致澳大利亚和加拿大等主要原料产国的货币贬值。交易员说，在大宗商品市场蒙受损失后，一些投资者可能一直希望通过利润丰厚的外汇交易来筹集资金。

道明证券（TD Securities）纽约外汇业务负责人阿列克西（Matthew Alexy）指出，在周四抛售前，欧元兑美元汇率较1月最低水平升值了16%。他说，当你在市场中持有一些大量头寸时，市场又显示出趋势性，那么就会产生人们希望获得和维护的利润。

大宗商品和外汇市场的长期趋势可能也取决于货币政策。自去年8月美联储暗示将开始实施第二轮量化宽松政策（QE2）以来，许多大宗商品市场全线上扬，有些观察人士认为一个原因是投资者投入了大量低息资金。

相反，最近出现抛售潮之前，美联储在上周三说将于6月停止目前的国债购买计划，但暗示说不会迅速加息。有些人因此质疑投资者会在未来几个月作何反应。

Gave-Kal分析师在一份研究报告中说，若在美联储强调了自己极度鸽派（即温和派）的立场后，大宗商品就已经显示出脆弱性，那么QE2结束时会发生什么？

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中国金属及农产品价格周五全线回落，追随美国大宗商品及股市前夜的大跌走势。美元走强、国内供应过剩以及宏观经济方面的担忧综合在一起拖累大宗商品价格下跌。

在经济数据疲弱、中国政府不断收紧政策的背景下，上海期货交易所金属价格下跌。

上海期交所交投最活跃的七月铜期货合约跌1.5%，至每吨人民币65,500元，创5个月新低。供应过剩及需求低迷则拖累锌和铅价格走低。

锌价下跌1.9%，铅价跌3.5%。

大连商品交易所交投最活跃的一月大豆期货开盘跌1.1%，至每吨人民币4,380元，领跌食用油及豆粕品种，这类商品期货均下跌1%左右。

郑州商品交易所基准九月糖期货合约跌1%，至每吨人民币6,486元，而九月棉花期货开盘跌0.6%，至每吨人民币24,765元。

受库存充裕影响，郑州商品交易所棉花期货自2月中旬触及高点以来已累计下跌40%。

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亚太股市周五收盘全线走低。美国公布四月份非农就业数据之前市场情绪紧张，原油和金属价格大幅下跌打击了大宗商品类股。

东京股市收盘走低，原油和黄金等大宗商品的价格大幅下挫以及日圆升值给市场带来重压，Inpex、丰田汽车(Toyota)和佳能(Canon)等权重股跌幅较大。日经指数跌至9859.20点，跌幅1.5%。该指数周一涨1.6%。日本金融市场周二至周四因黄金周假日休市。

香港股市收于5周来最低水平，其中能源公司类股领跌大盘；由于市场担心美国令人失望的经济数据导致需求走软，原油价格因此在前夜大幅下滑。恒生指数跌至23,159.14点，跌幅0.4%，为3月29日来的最低收盘水平。

中国股市收盘小幅走低。继前夜大宗商品价格大幅下滑之后，煤炭和金属类股领跌。基准上证综指收盘跌至2863.89点，跌幅0.3%。该指数本周累计下跌1.6%。

澳大利亚股市获得有力支撑，收盘仅微幅下跌。证券公司在澳洲银行(National Australia Bank)发布上半年业绩后上调该股评级，从而推动该股大涨；资源和能源类股则因大宗商品价格下跌而温和走低。基准的S&P/ASX 200指数收盘跌至4743.0点，跌幅0.2%。

新加坡股市收盘下跌，但全球原油价格大幅下滑提振了新加坡航空(Singapore Airlines)和海皇轮船(Neptune Orient Lines)等燃油价格敏感类个股。新加坡将于周末举行大选。海峡时报指数收盘跌至3,099.52点，跌幅0.3%。

大宗商品下跌对老百姓来说应该是好事吧？

会减小通胀压力：）

飘过

I can't wait for significant price falls to truelly happen

LLast week saw sharp falls in oil and commodity prices, including a record daily fall in the price of oil – of $12 a barrel.

Oil prices are still some 40pc higher than last year's average and 80pc higher than the average in 2009 Photo: Reuters
By Roger Bootle 8:13PM BST 08 May 2011
29 Comments
And falls occurred across all categories of commodities from precious metals to industrial metals and foodstuffs. Could this be the beginning of something big?
If it is, then things have to develop a long way from here. Oil prices are still some 40pc higher than last year's average and 80pc higher than the average in 2009. It is a similar story with soft commodities. Wheat is still 30pc above last year's average. Nevertheless, as Mao-Tse-Tung is supposed to have said: "The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step". (Mind you, so does the journey of a single step.)
If commodity prices do fall a long way, it shouldn't be that surprising. In fact, I have been waiting for this for some time. The fundamental reason why they are weakening now is the evidence of softer growth in the world economy, accompanied by a mini revival of the dollar.
Over here, of course, we have had weak GDP and consumption figures but also weak PMI surveys for both manufacturing and the service sector. Interestingly, in the US too, although Friday's employment figures were OK, there have also recently been some soft numbers. Meanwhile, Japan is laid low by the results of the recent disaster and in the eurozone there are early signs of a slowdown.
Why should the world recovery have started to slow? I think the most likely explanation is the very increase in oil and commodity prices which now seems to be reversing. Across most of the world, higher prices have sharply reduced consumers' real incomes and increased firms' costs.
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Yet changes in the health of the world economy may not be the whole story. There has been a raging controversy about the extent to which speculation has played a role in driving commodity prices. At the least, it should be obvious that speculation can have an enormous impact over short time periods.
Last week the price of oil fell by 10pc. Are we to suppose that demand from the world economy has fallen by enough in one week to cause a fall of that magnitude? Of course this is nonsense. What has happened is that traders' views about what has happened, and may yet happen, to world demand have changed. But if a change of view (speculation) can undoubtedly affect prices in the short run then why can it not affect them over longer periods?
In theory it can. The argument against this having been important in practice is that speculators would have to be prepared and able to build up stocks (inventories). Yet supposedly there is no noticeable evidence of a build-up of inventories of commodities.
This argument has always struck me as seriously overstated. Admittedly, there has to be an increased preparedness to hold inventories. But this need not translate into an increase in inventories in practice. The price may take the strain, thereby burning off the desire to hold more stock.
This is not a point about the special characteristics of commodities. It is a fundamental point of economics. It rests on the distinction between ex-ante and ex-post demand. When the stock market report says that the price of BP shares rose because of increased demand for them, we do not expect to see this reflected in an increased number of shares in issue. We expect to see it reflected in a higher share price. So it is with commodities.
What are the implications? If all the recent weakness of commodity prices is a reflection of the incipient weakness of the world economy, that is hardly cause for rejoicing. After all, although there would be gains from stronger growth in real incomes, if the world economy were slower then this would be bad news – especially for our exports.
And exports are our great hope for recovery. What we would gain on the swings we would lose on the roundabouts. And the roundabouts could easily be more significant than the swings. If speculation has contributed a good deal to the recent strength of these prices, however, then there is scope for commodity prices to fall to an extent that is greater than what is justified by a world economic slowdown.
The future is full of surprises. If I had to put forward an idea for how the next few years could turn out much better than most analysts (myself included) are forecasting, my leading candidate would be a large fall in commodity prices out of all proportion to any weakness in the world economy.
If that happens, then we would see a dramatic drop in inflation and a sharp recovery of consumer real incomes. This would help people to absorb the effects of the fiscal squeeze. It is certainly something to hope for. And it may just happen.
Roger Bootle is managing director of Capital Economics and economic adviser to Deloitte
[email protected]

Nevertheless, as Mao-Tse-Tung is supposed to have said: "The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step". (Mind you, so does the journey of a single step.)

我不知道他也学习毛主席语录。