来源：华尔街日报
作者：Sarah McBride / Yukari Iwatani Kane
2008年02月19日17:30
旷日持久、紧张激烈的高清晰DVD格式之战终于要画上句号了，东芝公司(Toshiba Corp.)准备正式向索尼公司(Sony Corp.)“缴械投降”，而支持“战败方”的电影公司和消费者也要经历痛苦的转变过程了，眼看着他们从“先行者”变成了“相关损失方”。
据知情人士透露，预计东芝最早于周二宣布撤出HD DVD业务，索尼的蓝光DVD格式顺理成章成为赢家，使得双方的这种争斗成为自20世纪80年代VHS录像带格式打败索尼的Betamax以来代价最为昂贵的一次竞争。对于东芝以及支持HD DVD格式的电影公司来说，当务之急是在把损失降至最小的同时如何抽身。目前维亚康姆(Viacom Inc.)旗下的派拉蒙电影公司(Paramount Pictures)、DreamWorks Animation SKG Inc.以及通用电气公司(General Electric Co.)旗下的环球电影公司(Universal Pictures)均支持这种格式。
一些购买了HD DVD播放器、或者HD DVD格式电影的消费者或许在一段时间内仍然能够购买到这种格式的产品。但是剩余几家仍在使用HD DVD格式的电影公司很可能会以最快的速度终止相关合约，转向蓝光阵营。
考虑到直到最近HD DVD播放器的价格仍高达数百美元，上述变化很可能令一些消费者恼怒不已。采用这种格式制作的电影DVD的售价一般也在每张35美元左右。
加利福尼亚州Adams Media Research的咨询师汤姆•亚当斯(Tom Adams)说，公司受到的主要影响是客户将对品牌嗤之以鼻，因为公司出售给他们一种很快便退出历史舞台的产品。
一些拥有HD DVD播放器或这种格式电影的消费者已经开始表达不满。消费者亚历克斯•阿特金(Alex Atkin)在电子产品论坛SlashGear上写道，十分感谢你们这些家伙，我希望你们栽在HD DVD上。
经过多年激烈的HD DVD-蓝光争夺战之后，蓝光最近几周开始加速扩大领先优势。这场格式之争的最大转折点出现在1月初，当时时代华纳公司(Time Warner Inc.)旗下的华纳兄弟(Warner Bros.)称，5月份以后只发行蓝光格式的高清晰DVD。自那之后，百思买(Best Buy Co.)及沃尔玛连锁公司(Wal-Mart)等零售商也表示全力支持索尼的蓝光技术。
消费者抵抗这种变化的努力也无济于事，比如一些消费者在网上发起了保留HD DVD格式的请愿活动，并获得了三万多人的签名支持，但这对事情的结果毫无影响。事实上，全球仅有大约几十万消费者购买了HD DVD播放器。
在过去几周，东芝一直努力为剩余的客户面临的各种可能作准备。当华纳兄弟1月份宣布放弃HD DVD格式之后，东芝称，正与其他HD DVD伙伴公司讨论这份声明的影响，并探讨下一步措施。当电影租赁公司Netflix Inc.及百思买上周宣布他们也不再支持这种格式时，东芝表示将继续研究市场影响以及消费者的价值主张，特别是公司最近对所有HD DVD播放器予以降价。
对于索尼来说，蓝光格式显而易见的胜利蕴含着商机。Sony Pictures Home Entertainment总裁大卫•毕肖普(David Bishop)之前花费了大量精力吸引消费者优先选择蓝光技术而非HD DVD，他说，蓝光阵营的支持者目前已经开始把工作重点转向提高销售量上了。现在，他们传递的信息是“把你的收藏升级到蓝光格式吧”。
随着竞争形势已经明朗、获胜方浮出水面，毕肖普预计买家将不再坐壁上观，而是逐步从传统DVD转向高清DVD。他说，索尼的研究显示，在潜在买家中，约有40%的人一直迟迟不愿出手是因为“没有人愿意买到将要过时的格式”。
不过，获胜一方不会立即就能尝到甜头。首先，生产高清DVD的工厂还没有为迎接蓝光DVD的胜利完全做好准备，现在只有少数几家工厂生产蓝光DVD，无法满足各大电影公司对高清电影碟片的需求。这可能意味着，那些目前只支持HD DVD格式的电影公司不会马上转向蓝光。它们也在进行相关谈判，期望能和那些已承诺采用蓝光的电影公司一样，获得类似的优惠条件。
另外，咨询师亚当斯表示，正是因为HD DVD的销售会大幅萎缩，今年高清电影销售状况仍将略显疲软。他预计，今年美国消费者在高清电影方面的支出约为11亿美元，而在DVD面市的第三年、即1999年他们在普通DVD上的支出为14亿美元。去年，美国消费者在高清电影方面的支出为2.80亿美元，与全球水平相当。
据知情人士称，东芝很有可能通过生产备用零部件、提供其他服务来继续支持HD DVD播放器；东芝还会将这项技术应用到其他领域，比如从网上下载高清电影等。不过，享受由此带来的回报尚须时日，从目前来看，即便是使用高速网络连接下载一部质量不如DVD的普通电影也要耗时数小时。
据一位知情人士称，东芝没有生产蓝光播放器的意向。分析师猜测，东芝最终还是会从其他生产商那里购买蓝光磁盘驱动器安装在其电脑上，而电脑生产是其一大业务。
东芝目前的市场地位也从一个方面让消费者受益：面对来自价格更低的HD DVD播放器的竞争，蓝光DVD播放器的价格也随之被拉低。即便是在今天，东芝播放器的价格只是在149.99美元至199.99美元之间，而即使是最便宜的蓝光播放器也要399.99美元左右，而其一年前的价格至少要到500美元。
在经历这场残酷争斗后，蓝光播放器制造商可能不愿再进一步降低价格，不过分析师们相信，在其价格降至接近所谓“可向上转换”播放器之前，蓝光市场不会有明显起步。这种“可向上转换”播放器使用的技术可对在高清电视机上播放的普通DVD碟片的图像质量有明显改善。目前这类播放器的售价不到100美元。
行业咨询机构Creative Strategies Inc.总裁蒂姆•巴加林(Tim Bajarin)说，他们将不得不在较短时间内把蓝光播放器的价格降到“可向上转换”播放器的水平。巴加林说，他相信，随着更多厂家涉足蓝光播放器生产领域，其价格自然会开始降下来。
而面对目前形势，HD DVD的一些坚定支持者希望尽量让坏事变成好事。
住在密歇根州的罗伯特•克劳福德(Robert Crawford)开始为他的两台HD DVD播放器到处搜集碟片。他说，亚马逊(Amazon.com)、Infinity Resources旗下的Deepdiscount.com等互联网零售商都在搞大降价、买一送一什么的。从圣诞节到现在，他已经挑了十多张。虽然他对HD DVD大势已去感到可惜，但他说，对这个结果并不太感到意外。他说，如果你是先行者，那么多少都要承担一些风险。
http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20080219/atc175849.asp?source=whatnews1As Toshiba Surrenders,
What's Next for DVDs? By SARAH MCBRIDE and YUKARI IWATANI KANE
February 18, 2008; Page B1
As Toshiba Corp. prepares to formally surrender to Sony Corp. in a long and brutal format war over high-definition DVDs, the movie studios and consumers who backed the losing side are about to make the painful linguistic journey from "early adopters" to "collateral damage."
Toshiba is expected to drop its HD DVD format as early as today, people familiar with the situation said, leaving Sony's Blu-ray as the winner of perhaps the most expensive format battle since the VHS videocassette format trumped Sony's Betamax in the 1980s. For Toshiba -- and the movie studios that backed HD DVD, such as Viacom Inc.'s Paramount Pictures, DreamWorks Animation SKG Inc. and General Electric Co.'s Universal Pictures -- the question now is how to extricate themselves from the format without suffering further damage.
Toshiba's Scott Ramirez touts HD-DVD shortly after Warner Bros. chose Blu-ray last month.
Consumers who bought HD DVD players, or who purchased pricey high-definition movies in the format, may still be able to add to their collections for a while. But the remaining studios still issuing titles in HD DVD are likely to end their agreements to do so as soon as possible and make the switch to Blu-ray.
That is likely to leave some angry customers, given that, until very recently, HD DVD players cost several hundred dollars. Movie titles in the format often cost about $35 each.
"Your main impact could be consumers souring on your brand, because you're selling them a format that's going away," says Tom Adams, a consultant at Adams Media Research in Carmel, Calif.
Some consumers who own HD DVD technology are already ticked off. "Thanks a lot guys, I hope you rot in h-," wrote customer Alex Atkin in a forum on gadget Web site SlashGear.
After a years-long heated battle between HD DVD and Blu-ray, Blu-ray began rapidly pulling away in recent weeks. The biggest momentum switch came in early January, when Time Warner Inc.'s Warner Bros., which had been backing both formats, said that after May, it would publish high-definition titles only on Blu-ray. Since then, retailers from Best Buy Co. to Wal-Mart Stores Inc. have said they would throw their weight exclusively behind the Sony-backed technology.
Consumer efforts to fight back -- like an online petition to keep HD DVD alive that has attracted more than 30,000 signatures -- have had little impact. Only a few hundred thousand consumers across the globe actually have purchased HD DVD players.
For the past few weeks, Toshiba has been trying to prepare its remaining consumers for the possibility it could drop the format. When Warner Bros. abandoned the format in January, Toshiba said it was "discussing the potential impact of this announcement with the other HD DVD partner companies and evaluating next steps." When movie-rental company Netflix Inc. and Best Buy said last week they, too, were dropping the format, Toshiba said it would "continue to study the market impact and the value proposition for consumers, particularly in light of our recent price reductions on all HD DVD players."
For Sony, the apparent victory of Blu-ray represents an opportunity. After spending a lot of time trying to sell the technology as superior to HD DVD, David Bishop, president of Sony Pictures Home Entertainment, says Blu-ray supporters already have shifted the focus to increasing sales. Now, the message is "upgrade your collection to Blu-ray," he says.
As a result of a clear victor emerging, Mr. Bishop expects buyers to stop fence-sitting and move from regular DVDs to high-definition. Of potential buyers, Sony research shows some 40% have been holding back because "no one wanted to get stuck with a format that was obsolete," he says.
But the payoff won't be immediate. For starters, DVD-replication factories that stamp out high-definition discs aren't quite ready for Blu-ray's victory. Just a handful of the plants exist -- not enough to handle the high-definition movie demands of all the major studios. That could mean the studios now backing HD DVD exclusively face delays moving to Blu-ray. Those studios also are trying to negotiate favorable terms, similar to what the studios already committed to Blu-ray got.
Meanwhile, Mr. Adams, the consultant, says that high-definition movie sales will remain somewhat weak this year, if only because HD DVD purchases will tail off sharply. He projects that U.S. consumers will spend about $1.1 billion on high-definition movies this year, compared with the $1.4 billion they spent on regular DVDs in 1999 -- their third year on the market. Last year, U.S. consumers spent $280 million on high-definition movies, with similar trends internationally.
Toshiba most likely will keep supporting HD DVD players by making spare parts and providing other services, and it will try to apply its technology to other areas, such as the downloading of high-definition movies online, people familiar with the matter say. But any payoff in that area is far down the line; right now, downloading even regular movies in quality that is inferior to DVDs takes a couple of hours, even on high-speed connections.
A person familiar with the situation says the company has no intention of making Blu-ray players. Analysts speculate that Toshiba might eventually buy Blu-ray disc drives from another manufacturer to install in its computers, which is a big business for the company.
Toshiba's presence in the market has helped consumers in one respect: bringing down prices for Blu-ray players owing to competition from its much less expensive HD DVD players. Even today, prices for Toshiba players are between $149.99 and $199.99, compared with around $399.99 for the least-expensive Blu-ray players. A year ago, Blu-ray players cost $500 or more.
Though Blu-ray manufacturers may be reluctant to cut prices further on their players after a brutal battle, analysts believe that Blu-ray won't take off in earnest until prices for players are closer to so-called upconverting DVD players -- which include technology that enhances the images from regular DVDs on high-definition television sets. These players are available for less than $100.
"They're going to have to get the prices of these [Blu-Ray] players down to [those upconverting] DVD players relatively soon," says Tim Bajarin, president of industry-consulting firm Creative Strategies Inc. Mr. Bajarin says he believes prices will begin falling naturally as more manufacturers decide to enter the Blu-ray-player business.
Some HD DVD loyalists are trying to make the best of a bad situation.
In Saginaw, Mich., auto-systems administrator Robert Crawford is stocking up on titles for his two HD DVD players. "They're having great sales," he says of online retailers such as Amazon.com Inc. and Infinity Resources Inc.'s Deepdiscount.com. "Buy one, get one free." He has picked up about a dozen since Christmas. Although he regrets HD DVD's downfall, he says it comes with the territory. "If you are an early adopter, that is the risk you run," he says.
Write to Sarah McBride at
[email protected] and Yukari Iwatani Kane at
[email protected]http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120321618700574049.html?mod=sphere_ts[ 此贴被卡拉在02-19-2008 20:55重新编辑 ]
